WFE Research Team , London , World Federation of Exchanges | Feb 2017

 

The uncertainty reflected in market activity in 2016 seems to be carrying through into 2017. Globally, both the volume and value of share trading for January 2017 were down 24.2% and 24.7% respectively versus 2016. Overall January 2017 values traded are lower than on every January since 2013, and volumes traded are lower than they have been since January 2014.

Volume traded (million trades)

Value of share trading (trillion USD)

 
Jan 2017 value traded (% change on)
Jan-16 Jan-15 Jan-14 Jan-13
Americas -24.7% -21.3% -12.1% 7.9%
Asia-Pacific -29.0% -39.6% 14.8% 45.9%
EMEA -14.9% -26.4% -21.9% -7.4%
Total -24.7% -28.6% -7.3% 14.0%
Jan 2017 volume traded (% change on)
Jan-16 Jan-15 Jan-14 Jan-13
Americas -30.1% -14.5% 0.5% 30.2%
Asia-Pacific -22.4% -12.7% 46.5% 42.8%
EMEA -10.9% -4.6% 13.1% 37.8%
Total -24.2% -12.5% 23.7% 37.7%
 

The 2017 dip in volume and value traded in equity shares compared with January 2016 was seen across all three regions, with the sharpest drops observed in volume traded in the Americas and value traded in the Asia-Pacific region respectively.

The value and volume traded in the Americas in January 2017 were down 24.7% and 30.1% on January 2016, driven primarily by declines in the US, where over 50% of the volume in the region is traded. The US economy experienced lower than expected GDP growth rate of 1.9% in Q4 2016 (driven by a sharp drop in new orders for durable goods), and markets were likely also watching out for anticipated changes in tax policy, financial regulation, trade agreements and the Fed’s interest rate response in February. The remainder of the exchanges in the Americas region largely saw a pickup in value traded versus 2016.

In the Asia-Pacific region value and volume traded were down 29.0% and 22.4% on January 2016 driven by Shanghai Stock Exchange, Shenzhen Stock Exchange and the Japan Exchange group. Reflecting the somewhat exceptional trading activity in the Asia-Pacific region over 2015, when compared to regional activity in January 2014 and 2013 volume traded was up 46.5% and 42.8%, and value traded up 14.8% and 45.9%. This return to a longer-term upward trend occurred against a backdrop of upbeat data on China’s manufacturing sector, and positive spill-over effects expected from increased infrastructure spending in the US, on economies that export industrial commodities like copper and zinc. The Caixin/Markit Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ index (PMI) for China climbed to 51.9 in December from 50.9 in November, recording the highest level of the index since January 2013.

Despite the overall decline in the region, a few exchanges such as ASX, NSE India limited and Stock Exchange of Thailand recorded increases in value and volumes of shares traded on 2016.

In the EMEA region, value and volume of shares traded in January 2017 were down 14.9% and 10.9% respectively on 2016. This was driven by the European exchanges which account for over 75% of the volume traded in the region, who started the year on an uncertain note following Brexit and the upcoming Dutch, French, German and Italian elections. The remaining, predominantly emerging market exchanges in the region, largely experienced increases in value and volumes of shares traded on 2016.

*EMEA region excludes data from the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange.

 
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